The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Bayern Munich are favourites: 75% to win against 9%. Attack against defence: Bayern Munich should create more, 2.31 expected goals a match against 1.47. RB Leipzig are 1.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 2 | 4 | 10 | 11.0 | −1.0 | 3.33 | 0.75 |
| RB Leipzig | 9 | 4 | 6 | 7.8 | −1.8 | 2.19 | 1.28 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →