Pitch Radar

Werder Bremen vs Paderborn: what the numbers say

Bundesliga · Round 6 · 17 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win59%Werder Bremen
Draw27%
Away win14%Paderborn
Expected points, home2.03

What to expect

Werder Bremen are favourites: 59% to win against 14%. Attack against defence: Werder Bremen should create more, 1.60 expected goals a match against 1.18. Read the table with care: Werder Bremen have taken 2.4 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Werder Bremen8474.6+2.41.321.58
Paderborn12442.9+1.10.771.89

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →