The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Augsburg: 49% against 31%. Attack against defence: Augsburg should create more, 2.30 expected goals a match against 1.84. Read the table with care: Elversberg have taken 3.6 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elversberg | 7 | 4 | 7 | 3.4 | +3.6 | 1.56 | 2.46 |
| Augsburg | 4 | 4 | 7 | 4.7 | +2.4 | 2.14 | 2.13 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →