The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.01.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 1 | 2.22 | −1.2 | 1.39 |
| Leeds United | 1 | 2.23 | −1.2 | 1.41 |
Brighton: +0.8 for the season (3 in the table). Leeds United: +1.8 (5). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.