Brighton — Leeds United 1:1

Brighton

1:1

Leeds United

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.01.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Brighton	1	2.22	−1.2	1.40
Leeds United	1	2.23	−1.2	1.41

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
14'	Jayden Bogle	Leeds United	0.97	Ao Tanaka
70'	Luka Vuskovic	Brighton	0.37	Maxim De Cuyper

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
14'	Jayden Bogle	Leeds United	0.97	goal, from a corner
88'	Pascal Groß	Brighton	0.65	off target
84'	Promise David	Brighton	0.52	off target, from a set piece

Shots: Brighton 20, Leeds United 10; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 3 and 4.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Brighton 0.08, Leeds United 2.30: a big edge for Leeds United. In the second half xG was Brighton 2.18, Leeds United 0.75: a clear edge for Brighton. The edge in chances passed from Leeds United to Brighton. Brighton scored 1 from 2.22 xG: fewer than they created. Leeds United scored 1 from 2.23 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Brighton: +3.8 for the season (2 in the table). Leeds United: +0.1 (9). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Newcastle United — Bournemouth 2:2Manchester City — Coventry City 1:0Nottingham Forest — Tottenham Hotspur 0:0Fulham — Crystal Palace 2:3Brentford — Sunderland 1:1Hull City — Aston Villa 0:0

All EPL matches with xG →