The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A draw, but Tottenham Hotspur created more (1.48 xG against 0.83) — points dropped.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 0 | 0.83 | −0.8 | 0.90 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 0 | 1.48 | −1.5 | 1.84 |
Nottingham Forest: −4.2 for the season (13 in the table). Tottenham Hotspur: −3.5 (20). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.