The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A draw, but Aston Villa created more (1.64 xG against 0.81) — points dropped.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City | 0 | 0.81 | −0.8 | 0.80 |
| Aston Villa | 0 | 1.64 | −1.6 | 1.95 |
Hull City: +2.5 for the season (8 in the table). Aston Villa: +0.0 (16). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.