The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Alavés: 54% against 20%. Attack against defence: Alavés should create more, 1.48 expected goals a match against 1.20. Read the table with care: Deportivo La Coruña have taken 2.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alavés | 6 | 8 | 11 | 12.2 | −1.2 | 1.46 | 1.20 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 7 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 | 1.20 | 1.49 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.