The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Athletic Club: 52% against 24%. Attack against defence: Athletic Club should create more, 1.79 expected goals a match against 1.27. Athletic Club are 4.2 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 13 | 7 | 8 | 9.1 | −1.1 | 1.27 | 1.71 |
| Athletic Club | 10 | 6 | 8 | 12.2 | −4.2 | 1.88 | 1.28 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.