The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Osasuna are favourites: 55% to win against 23%. Attack against defence: Osasuna should create more, 1.67 expected goals a match against 1.45. Osasuna are 2.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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