Real Madrid vs Alavés: match prediction
Real MadridVS
AlavésThe match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Home win76%Real Madrid
Draw15%
Away win9%Alavés
Expected points, home2.42
What to expect
Real Madrid are favourites: 76% to win against 9%. Attack against defence: Real Madrid should create more, 1.97 expected goals a match against 1.19. Alavés are 3.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
How they arrive
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2 | 12 | 30 | 27.7 | +2.3 | 2.55 | 1.01 |
| Alavés | 12 | 12 | 13 | 16.8 | −3.8 | 1.36 | 1.40 |
Recent matches
Valencia — Real Madrid 0:3
Racing Santander — Real Madrid 0:3
Barcelona — Real Madrid 1:2Real Madrid — 
Sevilla 4:1Real Madrid — 
Villarreal 1:0Sevilla — Alaves 0:0Barcelona — Alaves 6:1Alaves — 
Malaga 1:1
Celta Vigo — Alaves 2:1Alaves — 
Atletico Madrid 1:2Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table → · LaLiga: next round predictions