The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Real Madrid are favourites: 69% to win against 13%. Attack against defence: Real Madrid should create more, 2.06 expected goals a match against 1.11. Valencia are 5.2 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 19 | 10 | 6 | 11.2 | −5.2 | 1.09 | 1.61 |
| Real Madrid | 3 | 10 | 24 | 22.3 | +1.7 | 2.52 | 1.13 |
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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