Pitch Radar

Sevilla vs Alavés: what the numbers say

LaLiga · Round 12 · 8 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win24%Sevilla
Draw29%
Away win47%Alavés
Expected points, home1.00

What to expect

A slight edge to Alavés: 47% against 24%. Attack against defence: Alavés should create more, 1.51 expected goals a match against 1.08. Read the table with care: Sevilla have taken 4.7 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Sevilla57138.3+4.71.061.50
Alavés671111.5−0.51.521.09

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table →