Pitch Radar

Brest vs Nice: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 8 · 24 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win82%Brest
Draw12%
Away win6%Nice
Expected points, home2.58

What to expect

Brest are favourites: 82% to win against 6%. Attack against defence: Brest should create more, 2.06 expected goals a match against 1.12. Brest are 4.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Brest11559.8−4.82.171.16
Nice14554.1+0.91.091.96

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →