Pitch Radar

Lens vs Lyon: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 6 · 10 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win44%Lens
Draw21%
Away win35%Lyon
Expected points, home1.52

What to expect

A slight edge to Lens: 44% against 35%. Attack against defence: level, 1.84 and 1.82 expected goals a match. Lens are 4.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Lens15548.8−4.82.501.66
Lyon25119.2+1.81.991.18

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →