Pitch Radar

Rennes vs Auxerre: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 6 · 10 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win68%Rennes
Draw16%
Away win17%Auxerre
Expected points, home2.19

What to expect

Rennes are favourites: 68% to win against 17%. Attack against defence: Rennes should create more, 2.11 expected goals a match against 1.70. Read the table with care: Rennes have taken 2.5 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Rennes55107.5+2.52.082.03
Auxerre10565.7+0.31.372.14

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →