The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Lyon: 53% against 22%. Attack against defence: Lyon should create more, 1.71 expected goals a match against 1.17. Troyes are 2.3 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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