Pitch Radar

Atalanta vs Frosinone: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 8 · 25 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win23%Atalanta
Draw23%
Away win54%Frosinone
Expected points, home0.92

What to expect

A slight edge to Frosinone: 54% against 23%. Attack against defence: Frosinone should create more, 1.88 expected goals a match against 1.49. Read the table with care: Frosinone have taken 4.8 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Atalanta11562.7+3.30.772.14
Frosinone65105.2+4.81.622.20

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →