Pitch Radar

Genoa vs Venezia: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 8 · 25 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win40%Genoa
Draw24%
Away win36%Venezia
Expected points, home1.44

What to expect

No clear favourite: 40% home, 24% draw, 36% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.72 and 1.70 expected goals a match. Venezia are 5.5 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Genoa19514.6−3.60.971.58
Venezia20505.5−5.51.812.47

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →