Pitch Radar

Lecce vs Juventus: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 8 · 25 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win3%Lecce
Draw9%
Away win88%Juventus
Expected points, home0.17

What to expect

Juventus are favourites: 88% to win against 3%. Attack against defence: Juventus should create more, 2.41 expected goals a match against 0.83. Read the table with care: Lecce have taken 3.8 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Lecce12562.2+3.81.252.96
Juventus751012.1−2.11.850.42

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →