Pitch Radar

Udinese vs AC Milan: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 8 · 25 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win19%Udinese
Draw20%
Away win61%AC Milan
Expected points, home0.76

What to expect

AC Milan are favourites: 61% to win against 19%. Attack against defence: AC Milan should create more, 2.03 expected goals a match against 1.30. Read the table with care: AC Milan have taken 2.1 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Udinese13545.0−1.01.422.12
AC Milan55118.9+2.11.941.18

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →