Pitch Radar

Bologna vs Udinese: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 12 · 22 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win64%Bologna
Draw19%
Away win16%Udinese
Expected points, home2.12

What to expect

Bologna are favourites: 64% to win against 16%. Attack against defence: Bologna should create more, 1.86 expected goals a match against 1.42. Bologna are 5.4 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Bologna147510.4−5.41.561.55
Udinese15645.2−1.21.282.16

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →