Como

Next match

Cagliari · at home, 21 Nov 2026
Win 74% · draw 15% · defeat 11%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A kind run.

What the numbers say

Points. 23 points from 19.8 xPTS (+3.2). By quality of play (xPTS) the club sits exactly where it is in the table: 5th. Source of the surplus: conceding less than expected (−5.5 vs xGA).

Attack. 2.04 xG per match — 4th of 20 (league average 1.70): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 18 goals from 22.4 xG — 20% fewer than expected. Finishing is clearly below par — the chances are the same, so the goals will probably follow.

Defence. 1.41 xGA per match — 9th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.70): mid-table for chances allowed. Conceded 10 goals from 15.5 xGA — 36% fewer than expected. Part of these clean sheets rests on luck rather than defending.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.29 per match: expected pace 1.8 points per match vs the current 2.1.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 2.09 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.64. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 8.2 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Como and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Serie A xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league