Pitch Radar

Frosinone vs Sassuolo: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 7 · 17 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win32%Frosinone
Draw21%
Away win47%Sassuolo
Expected points, home1.17

What to expect

A slight edge to Sassuolo: 47% against 32%. Attack against defence: Sassuolo should create more, 2.03 expected goals a match against 1.64. Read the table with care: Frosinone have taken 4.8 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Frosinone65105.2+4.81.622.20
Sassuolo10577.6−0.61.861.65

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →