Pitch Radar

Juventus vs Lazio: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 7 · 17 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win73%Juventus
Draw20%
Away win7%Lazio
Expected points, home2.39

What to expect

Juventus are favourites: 73% to win against 7%. Attack against defence: Juventus should create more, 1.69 expected goals a match against 1.11. Read the table with care: Lazio have taken 5.0 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Juventus751012.1−2.11.850.42
Lazio35138.0+5.01.811.52

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →