Pitch Radar

Sassuolo vs Lazio: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 9 · 28 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win45%Sassuolo
Draw22%
Away win32%Lazio
Expected points, home1.58

What to expect

A slight edge to Sassuolo: 45% against 32%. Attack against defence: level, 1.69 and 1.73 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Lazio have taken 5.0 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Sassuolo10577.6−0.61.861.65
Lazio35138.0+5.01.811.52

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →