The score and the xG side by side. Where they disagree, someone rode their luck or wasted chances — and that is exactly how the season-long gap builds up.
| Match | Score | xG | Who deserved it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moscow — Rostov | 2:4 | 0.94 : 2.15 | deserved |
| Akron Tolyatti — Rubin Kazan | 1:2 | 0.77 : 1.51 | deserved |
| CSKA Moscow — Krylia Sovetov | 1:1 | 1.13 : 0.47 | dropped points |
| Dynamo Makhachkala — Lokomotiv Moscow | 2:1 | 1.56 : 1.49 | even by chances |
| Baltika Kaliningrad — Dynamo Moscow | 2:1 | 1.64 : 0.98 | deserved |
| Orenburg — Zenit | 0:3 | 0.55 : 0.81 | even by chances |
| Krasnodar — Fakel Voronezh | 3:2 | 1.19 : 1.70 | got lucky |
| Akhmat Grozny — Spartak Moscow | 1:2 | 0.86 : 1.04 | even by chances |
Rostov — 2.15 xG. Opponent: Rodina Moscow. Result: a win.
Fakel Voronezh: 1.70 xG against the opponent's 1.19. Result: a defeat.