The score and the xG side by side. Where they disagree, someone rode their luck or wasted chances — and that is exactly how the season-long gap builds up.
| Match | Score | xG | Who deserved it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Krylia Sovetov — Rodina Moscow | 2:1 | 2.42 : 1.19 | deserved |
| Fakel Voronezh — Baltika Kaliningrad | 2:2 | 0.65 : 1.96 | dropped points |
| Zenit — Lokomotiv Moscow | 2:1 | 1.62 : 1.15 | even by chances |
| Dynamo Moscow — Orenburg | 1:0 | 0.93 : 0.31 | deserved |
| CSKA Moscow — Rubin Kazan | 1:1 | 1.96 : 1.11 | dropped points |
| Akhmat Grozny — Dynamo Makhachkala | 3:2 | 1.05 : 0.56 | even by chances |
| Spartak Moscow — Rostov | 3:0 | 2.84 : 0.29 | deserved |
| Krasnodar — Akron Tolyatti | 1:1 | 0.87 : 0.38 | even by chances |
Spartak Moscow — 2.84 xG. Opponent: Rostov. Result: a win.
Baltika Kaliningrad: 1.96 xG against the opponent's 0.65. Result: a draw.