The score and the xG side by side. Where they disagree, someone rode their luck or wasted chances — and that is exactly how the season-long gap builds up.
| Match | Score | xG | Who deserved it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moscow — Rubin Kazan | 1:1 | 1.23 : 0.66 | dropped points |
| Spartak Moscow — Fakel Voronezh | 1:0 | 2.07 : 0.08 | deserved |
| Baltika Kaliningrad — Zenit | 2:3 | 1.98 : 1.25 | got lucky |
| Lokomotiv Moscow — Krylia Sovetov | 1:1 | 0.53 : 2.06 | dropped points |
| Orenburg — Krasnodar | 0:0 | 0.81 : 1.35 | dropped points |
| Rostov — Dynamo Moscow | 0:3 | 0.65 : 1.84 | deserved |
| Akron Tolyatti — Akhmat Grozny | 2:0 | 1.06 : 0.59 | even by chances |
| Dynamo Makhachkala — CSKA Moscow | 1:3 | 1.54 : 1.98 | even by chances |
Spartak Moscow — 2.07 xG. Opponent: Fakel Voronezh. Result: a win.
Krylia Sovetov: 2.06 xG against the opponent's 0.53. Result: a draw.