The score and the xG side by side. Where they disagree, someone rode their luck or wasted chances — and that is exactly how the season-long gap builds up.
| Match | Score | xG | Who deserved it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torino — Monza | 3:2 | 1.45 : 0.44 | deserved |
| Cagliari — Bologna | 0:2 | 0.24 : 1.78 | deserved |
| Como — Sassuolo | 2:0 | 2.32 : 0.29 | deserved |
| Napoli — Roma | 3:3 | 2.98 : 1.96 | dropped points |
| Lazio — Parma | 2:1 | 1.67 : 0.95 | deserved |
| Inter — Fiorentina | 2:1 | 2.75 : 0.28 | deserved |
| Atalanta — Frosinone | 4:4 | 4.32 : 1.51 | dropped points |
| Genoa — Venezia | 1:0 | 0.78 : 1.66 | got lucky |
| Lecce — Juventus | 0:2 | 0.76 : 0.80 | even by chances |
| Udinese — AC Milan | 0:2 | 0.79 : 3.25 | deserved |
Atalanta — 4.32 xG. Opponent: Frosinone. Result: a draw.
Atalanta: 4.32 xG against the opponent's 1.51. Result: a draw.