The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Augsburg | Hoffenheim | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 9 | 10 |
| Points | 9 | 9 |
| xPTS | 8.4 | 11.9 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +0.6 | −2.9 |
| xG per match | 2.33 | 2.14 |
| xGA per match | 2.56 | 1.58 |
| Scored | 17 | 14 |
| Conceded | 13 | 14 |
By quality of play Hoffenheim is ahead: 11.9 xPTS against 8.4. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Augsburg: +0.6, Hoffenheim: −2.9.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Augsburg — 5.2, Hoffenheim — 9.1.