The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 10 | 11 |
| Points | 9 | 9 |
| xPTS | 11.9 | 6 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −2.9 | +3.0 |
| xG per match | 2.14 | 1.08 |
| xGA per match | 1.58 | 2.02 |
| Scored | 14 | 6 |
| Conceded | 14 | 16 |
By quality of play Hoffenheim is ahead: 11.9 xPTS against 6.0. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Hoffenheim: −2.9, Hamburger SV: +3.0.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Hoffenheim — 9.1, Hamburger SV — 4.3.