The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Werder Bremen | Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 7 | 8 |
| Points | 8 | 7 |
| xPTS | 4.9 | 9.3 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +3.1 | −2.3 |
| xG per match | 1.23 | 2.54 |
| xGA per match | 1.79 | 1.7 |
| Scored | 10 | 13 |
| Conceded | 10 | 10 |
By quality of play Mainz 05 is ahead: 9.3 xPTS against 4.9. In the table the gap is 1 points. The gap between points and play — Werder Bremen: +3.1, Mainz 05: −2.3.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Werder Bremen — 6.3, Mainz 05 — 9.2.