The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Hamburger SV | Augsburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 9 | 10 |
| Points | 9 | 8 |
| xPTS | 5.5 | 6.1 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +3.5 | +1.9 |
| xG per match | 1.19 | 2.38 |
| xGA per match | 2.13 | 2.85 |
| Scored | 6 | 16 |
| Conceded | 15 | 12 |
By quality of play they are level: 5.5 xPTS against 6.1. The gap between points and play — Hamburger SV: +3.5, Augsburg: +1.9.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Hamburger SV — 4.5, Augsburg — 5.4.