The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Werder Bremen | Hamburger SV | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 8 | 9 |
| Points | 9 | 9 |
| xPTS | 7.2 | 5.5 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +1.8 | +3.5 |
| xG per match | 1.47 | 1.19 |
| xGA per match | 1.72 | 2.13 |
| Scored | 12 | 6 |
| Conceded | 12 | 15 |
By quality of play Werder Bremen is ahead: 7.2 xPTS against 5.5. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Werder Bremen: +1.8, Hamburger SV: +3.5.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Werder Bremen — 7.2, Hamburger SV — 4.5.