The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| VfB Stuttgart | Hoffenheim | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 13 | 14 |
| Points | 6 | 6 |
| xPTS | 7.3 | 9 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −1.3 | −3.0 |
| xG per match | 2.22 | 1.97 |
| xGA per match | 2.63 | 1.77 |
| Scored | 8 | 11 |
| Conceded | 10 | 14 |
By quality of play Hoffenheim is ahead: 9.0 xPTS against 7.3. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — VfB Stuttgart: −1.3, Hoffenheim: −3.0.
Expected points over the coming rounds: VfB Stuttgart — 7.5, Hoffenheim — 8.2.