The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Lorient | Lens | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 8 | 9 |
| Points | 8 | 7 |
| xPTS | 7.3 | 10.5 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +0.7 | −3.5 |
| xG per match | 1.05 | 2.32 |
| xGA per match | 1.18 | 1.55 |
| Scored | 6 | 11 |
| Conceded | 6 | 10 |
By quality of play Lens is ahead: 10.5 xPTS against 7.3. In the table the gap is 1 points. The gap between points and play — Lorient: +0.7, Lens: −3.5.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Lorient — 6.4, Lens — 9.2.