The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Baltika Kaliningrad | Dynamo Makhachkala | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 9 | 10 |
| Points | 14 | 13 |
| xPTS | 19.2 | 16.3 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −5.2 | −3.3 |
| xG per match | 1.28 | 1.34 |
| xGA per match | 0.87 | 1.48 |
| Scored | 15 | 16 |
| Conceded | 13 | 23 |
By quality of play Baltika Kaliningrad is ahead: 19.2 xPTS against 16.3. In the table the gap is 1 points. The gap between points and play — Baltika Kaliningrad: −5.2, Dynamo Makhachkala: −3.3.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Baltika Kaliningrad — 8.2, Dynamo Makhachkala — 5.9.