The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Krylia Sovetov | Baltika Kaliningrad | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 9 | 10 |
| Points | 12 | 11 |
| xPTS | 15.3 | 16.2 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −3.3 | −5.2 |
| xG per match | 1.43 | 1.49 |
| xGA per match | 1.17 | 0.85 |
| Scored | 14 | 14 |
| Conceded | 15 | 12 |
By quality of play they are level: 15.3 xPTS against 16.2. The gap between points and play — Krylia Sovetov: −3.3, Baltika Kaliningrad: −5.2.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Krylia Sovetov — 8.3, Baltika Kaliningrad — 9.6.