The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Baltika Kaliningrad | Orenburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 7 | 8 |
| Points | 12 | 12 |
| xPTS | 17.3 | 16.1 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −5.3 | −4.0 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.38 |
| xGA per match | 0.84 | 0.94 |
| Scored | 14 | 11 |
| Conceded | 12 | 10 |
By quality of play Baltika Kaliningrad is ahead: 17.3 xPTS against 16.1. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Baltika Kaliningrad: −5.3, Orenburg: −4.0.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Baltika Kaliningrad — 9.0, Orenburg — 8.2.