The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Orenburg | Rubin Kazan | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 8 | 9 |
| Points | 12 | 12 |
| xPTS | 16.1 | 11.7 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −4.0 | +0.3 |
| xG per match | 1.38 | 0.95 |
| xGA per match | 0.94 | 1.23 |
| Scored | 11 | 12 |
| Conceded | 10 | 12 |
By quality of play Orenburg is ahead: 16.1 xPTS against 11.7. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Orenburg: −4.0, Rubin Kazan: +0.3.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Orenburg — 8.2, Rubin Kazan — 5.7.