The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Zenit | Krasnodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 1 | 2 |
| Points | 21 | 21 |
| xPTS | 16.9 | 14.5 |
| Δ points − xPTS | +4.1 | +6.5 |
| xG per match | 1.45 | 1.25 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1.08 |
| Scored | 22 | 16 |
| Conceded | 11 | 10 |
By quality of play Zenit is ahead: 16.9 xPTS against 14.5. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Zenit: +4.1, Krasnodar: +6.5.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Zenit — 9.0, Krasnodar — 7.3.