The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Monza | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 14 | 15 |
| Points | 7 | 5 |
| xPTS | 10.3 | 10.4 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −3.3 | −5.4 |
| xG per match | 1.86 | 1.56 |
| xGA per match | 1.76 | 1.55 |
| Scored | 13 | 6 |
| Conceded | 15 | 10 |
By quality of play they are level: 10.3 xPTS against 10.4. The gap between points and play — Monza: −3.3, Bologna: −5.4.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Monza — 7.7, Bologna — 8.1.