Augsburg — Union Berlin 1:1

Augsburg

1:1

Union Berlin

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

A draw, but Augsburg created more (2.02 xG against 0.83) — points dropped.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Augsburg	1	2.02	−1.0	2.16
Union Berlin	1	0.83	+0.2	0.64

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
70'	Han-Noah Massengo	Augsburg	0.13	Fabian Rieder
73'	Janik Haberer	Union Berlin	0.57

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
73'	Janik Haberer	Union Berlin	0.57	goal, from a set piece
86'	Michael Gregoritsch	Augsburg	0.53	off target
70'	Han-Noah Massengo	Augsburg	0.13	goal, header

Shots: Augsburg 25, Union Berlin 6; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 1 and 1.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Augsburg 0.65, Union Berlin 0.04: a small edge for Augsburg. In the second half xG was Augsburg 1.37, Union Berlin 0.80: a small edge for Augsburg. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. Augsburg scored 1 from 2.02 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Augsburg: −1.9 for the season (14 in the table). Union Berlin: −0.2 (16). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

1. FC Köln — Schalke 04 0:0Mainz 05 — Werder Bremen 2:3Paderborn — Hamburger SV 1:0RB Leipzig — Elversberg 4:0Borussia Dortmund — Eintracht Frankfurt 1:0

All Bundesliga matches with xG →