The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Mainz 05 are favourites: 69% to win against 13%. Attack against defence: Mainz 05 should create more, 2.10 expected goals a match against 1.44. Read the table with care: Werder Bremen have taken 2.4 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 8.0 | −1.0 | 2.63 | 1.55 |
| Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 | 1.32 | 1.58 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →