Mainz 05 — Werder Bremen 2:3
Mainz 052:3
Werder BremenThe score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Score2:3
Home xG1.86Mainz 05
Away xG2.95Werder Bremen
Expected points0.86 : 1.97
Who deserved it
The score matched the game: Werder Bremen was the better side by chances too.
The numbers
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 | 2 | 1.86 | +0.1 | 0.86 |
| Werder Bremen | 3 | 2.95 | +0.0 | 1.97 |
Goals
| Minute | Goal | Team | Shot xG | Assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' | Niclas Füllkrug (penalty) | Werder Bremen | 0.76 | |
| 24' | Niclas Füllkrug (penalty) | Werder Bremen | 0.76 | |
| 32' | Anthony Caci | Mainz 05 | 0.30 | Sheraldo Becker |
| 60' | Ludovit Reis | Werder Bremen | 0.07 | Marco Grüll |
| 62' | Jae-Sung Lee | Mainz 05 | 0.03 | Anthony Caci |
Key chances
| Minute | Player | Team | xG | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80' | Nadiem Amiri | Mainz 05 | 0.39 | saved |
| 31' | Niclas Füllkrug | Werder Bremen | 0.34 | saved, header, from a corner |
| 32' | Anthony Caci | Mainz 05 | 0.30 | goal, header |
Shots: Mainz 05 18, Werder Bremen 17; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 2 and 3.
How the game went
In the first half xG was Mainz 05 0.68, Werder Bremen 2.17: a clear edge for Werder Bremen. In the second half xG was Mainz 05 1.16, Werder Bremen 0.81: a small edge for Mainz 05. The edge in chances passed from Werder Bremen to Mainz 05.
How it fits the season
Mainz 05: −4.8 for the season (12 in the table). Werder Bremen: +2.6 (6). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.
Augsburg — 
Union Berlin 1:1
1. FC Köln — 
Schalke 04 0:0
Paderborn — 
Hamburger SV 1:0
RB Leipzig — 
Elversberg 4:0
Borussia Dortmund — 
Eintracht Frankfurt 1:0