The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
1. FC Köln are favourites: 70% to win against 16%. Attack against defence: 1. FC Köln should create more, 2.41 expected goals a match against 1.91. 1. FC Köln are 1.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5.8 | −1.8 | 2.24 | 2.17 |
| Schalke 04 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 4.3 | +0.7 | 1.65 | 2.58 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →