Pitch Radar

RB Leipzig vs Elversberg: what the numbers say

Bundesliga · Round 7 · 24 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win80%RB Leipzig
Draw12%
Away win8%Elversberg
Expected points, home2.52

What to expect

RB Leipzig are favourites: 80% to win against 8%. Attack against defence: RB Leipzig should create more, 2.33 expected goals a match against 1.42. Read the table with care: Elversberg have taken 3.6 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
RB Leipzig9467.8−1.82.191.28
Elversberg7473.4+3.61.562.46

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →