Pitch Radar

Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt: what the numbers say

Bundesliga · Round 7 · 24 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win72%Borussia Dortmund
Draw15%
Away win12%Eintracht Frankfurt
Expected points, home2.32

What to expect

Borussia Dortmund are favourites: 72% to win against 12%. Attack against defence: Borussia Dortmund should create more, 2.19 expected goals a match against 1.64. Read the table with care: Borussia Dortmund have taken 3.9 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Borussia Dortmund14128.1+3.92.151.06
Eintracht Frankfurt10455.5−0.52.222.23

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →