The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Paderborn: 39% against 29%. Attack against defence: level, 1.54 and 1.44 expected goals a match.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn | 12 | 4 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 | 0.77 | 1.89 |
| Hamburger SV | 16 | 4 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 0.99 | 2.31 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →