The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Freiburg: 44% against 32%. Attack against defence: level, 1.67 and 1.74 expected goals a match. Hoffenheim are 2.9 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 3 | 7 | 13 | 12.3 | +0.7 | 1.76 | 1.34 |
| Hoffenheim | 10 | 7 | 9 | 11.9 | −2.9 | 2.14 | 1.58 |
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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