The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 39% home, 27% draw, 34% away. Attack against defence: Atlético Madrid should create more, 1.52 expected goals a match against 1.36. Read the table with care: Atlético Madrid have taken 3.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alavés | 6 | 7 | 11 | 11.5 | −0.5 | 1.52 | 1.09 |
| Atlético Madrid | 2 | 7 | 16 | 12.8 | +3.2 | 1.96 | 1.21 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.